602-840-0606
Toll-Free: 800-238-7475
contact@cmyers.com
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Toll-Free: 800-238-7475
contact@cmyers.com
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c. notes – Aggregating Risks to Inform Strategy
ALM, Interest Rate Risk Blog PostsTo remain successful as the world changes and becomes more complex, risk management processes must keep pace.
Risk management begins with identifying and quantifying strategic risks. An effective process also recognizes that it is not adequate to only quantify and understand risks in silos. Risks should also be quantified and understood in aggregate. As history repeatedly taught us, bad things don’t usually happen in isolation.
Understanding and communicating risks in aggregate allows decision-makers to evaluate if the credit union is taking on too much risk, or if the credit union may be poised to strategically accept more risk. Also note that understanding risks in aggregate permits management to consider the credit union’s capacity for strategic opportunities; strategic risks and opportunities are two sides of the same coin.
To continue reading, please visit the article here.
Aggregating Risks to Inform Strategy
ALM, Interest Rate Risk, Strategic Planning ArticlesAre Your Predictions Limiting Your Strategic Thinking?
Strategic Planning Blog PostsPredictions are a tricky business.
Leaders assess how the world might or might not change. Whether it’s new non-traditional competition, cutting-edge technologies, evolving business models, or changing member behaviors, developing successful strategies today relies on decision-makers opening their minds to the possibilities and then choosing a path. Are you thinking creatively enough about how the world might change around you and how to ensure your credit union does not get left behind?
Consider the disruptions in financial services today. Like Blockbuster above, should strategy focus on behemoths like Wal-Mart and Apple, or are there greater threats in newer business models like M-Pesa, SoFi, and The Lending Club? Perhaps the greater threats and opportunities are evolving technologies. All of this is happening on top of traditional competition, regulation, and the economy.
Good strategy begins with careful consideration of possible threats and opportunities. Identifying the future you’re planning for is an important first step. With the future uncertain, even the best-laid plans are likely to run into unanticipated challenges. It can be useful, then, to ask, “What if the strategies we pursue are based on expectations that don’t come to pass?”
We recommend going through a process of test driving difficult and hard-to-imagine environments. Creating stories around such environments and discussing how the credit union could respond can be extremely valuable. Institutions are often amazed at the insight this can provide whether the environment actually occurs.
It’s not easy to foresee the future. We’ll leave you with some great historical examples, demonstrating that even the smartest people can misjudge the future.
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALM MODEL VALIDATIONS: DO DECAY RATES MATTER?
ALM, Consumer Behavior and Technology Blog PostsYes. Decay rates do matter, but they are often not appropriately applied in the asset/liability management (ALM) process. Decay rates are essential for capturing the risk of evolving member behavior, namely deposit migration, as rates change. This blog will focus on using decay rates when simulating net economic value (NEV).
Model validations typically reveal two common issues as it pertains to the setup and implementation of deposit decay rates.
1) Decay rates are not being incorporated
Model users are often surprised to find out decay rates are not being incorporated. Common reasons for this include the fact that input fields can be hard to locate or reports summarizing key assumptions are not reported effectively (sometimes assumptions reported in a summary are not actually the assumptions in the model). To better illustrate, lack of decay rates from a recent model validation were organized by c. myers in the table below.
The risk of decay rates not being incorporated in NEV can be dramatic, especially in the various rate shocks. If decay rates are not included, it will result in longer deposit cash flows, an unrealistic market valuation of deposits and, ultimately, an understatement of interest rate risk in a rising rate environment.
Credit unions should check their ALM models to make sure reasonable decay rates are appropriately applied and coincide with key assumption reporting.
2) Decay Rates Do Not Change As Market Rates Change
The issue of decay rates not changing as the world around us changes was discussed during a blog in September 2014. Back then, we pointed out that,
In the table below, c. myers organized decay rates from a recent model validation we performed.
Notice that while decay rates are unique for the three different deposit products, decay rates remain constant regardless of changes in market rates. Said differently, this model assumes members will not consider the evolving advantage they might have to withdraw funds as rates change. However, as demonstrated in the chart below, history does not support the assumption that member behavior does not change as rates change.
The following graph shows when market rates increased from roughly 1% to 5% in 2004 and 2005, the industry experienced a material decrease in the concentration of regular shares and increase in member CDs. However, over the past 8 years, that trend has reversed as member certificates have declined while regular shares have experienced significant growth.
Keep in mind as you review decay rates, it is not about getting the “right” assumption, because that is virtually impossible. It is about reasonably representing changes in consumer behavior in your base-case risk analysis, then stress testing a range of assumptions to understand the impact.
While the focus of this blog has been on NEV, deposit behavior is a material component of income simulations as well. Ignoring deposit and member behavior will understate the cost of funds in higher rate environments and likewise hide risk. This is an issue that shows up with the static balance sheet approach and has been discussed frequently in previous blogs. To learn more, refer to the links below.
Observations from ALM Model Validations: Cost of Funds Back Testing
Observations from ALM Model Validations: Extremely Profitable New Business ROA in Static Balance Sheet Simulations
Isolating Interest Rate Risk with a Static Balance Sheet
Are Millennials Finding You Attractive ?
Consumer Behavior and Technology, Process Improvement Blog PostsAs time marches on, we find Millennials coming into their most financially productive years, and they need financial services. In 2010, Gen Y made up only 17% of vehicle sales. Five years later, that number has grown to 28% of sales, while Baby Boomers and Gen X have flatlined or fallen back (according to J.D. Power and Associates). Many credit unions are considering process improvement in order to refine their processes to better appeal to Millennials but, believe it or not, easy appeals to any generation!
Consider the lending process from a Millennial’s perspective:
Are you getting your fair share of Millennials’ business? Can you be found where they are looking? Are you offering the type of experience they value and expect? Have you considered that making things easy will appeal to other generations – not just Millennials?
Facebook recently published a white paper on Millennials and Money that uncovered some key findings. The Millennials on Facebook are turning out to be financially conservative, with a focus on paying off debt and saving. Unlike previous generations, Millennials talk openly about money matters and they talk about them online, crowdsourcing for their financial advice – the modern-day version of word of mouth. Who better to dispense financial advice than credit unions? The question is, are you part of that online conversation?
Even if you are, is the experience you’re providing relevant to this generation? It’s well known that Millennials “live” on mobile, and while they are often multichannel users, they typically start their journeys on mobile. How do you show up? People expect things to be easy and convenient. If you need inspirational ideas for how fast, easy, and convenient the financial experience can be, look no further than the internet for non-traditional competitors like Lending Club or Quicken’s Rocket Mortgage. How does your experience compare? It is commonly said that this generation isn’t loyal. Why should they be if others are offering a far superior experience?
Have you fully revamped your lending and account opening processes – often the first exposure your potential member has to your credit union – with the Millennial in mind? This takes a hard, honest look, which isn’t easy, but keep in mind that some of your toughest competitors have already done it. Don’t forget this benefits other generations. How many Baby Boomers miss going to Blockbuster to rent a movie?
Process improvement is typically conducted with a goal of eliminating waste, which is critical, but tying in the strategic goal of providing a rewarding experience across generations is key to remaining relevant as a financial institution into the future.