c. myblog

June 13, 2018

Are Net Interest Income (NII) Simulation Pricing Assumptions Producing Optimistic Results?

We perform many model validations each year.  In most income simulations, it is assumed that all new volume loan rates will move at 100% of the change in market rates.  However, recent trends show that the “typical” new volume assumptions used by many credit unions are not representative of what is happening.  This can cause […]

March 21, 2018

Time To Tune Up Modeling In Down Rate Environments

Over the past year or so, both ends of the yield curve have risen. With an increasing focus on data integrity in A/LM modeling, performing quality control and reasonability checks on modeled outputs has never been more important. One particular area of focus, given the increases in short-term rates over the last 12 months, is […]

December 19, 2017

Is The Yield Curve Flattening?

Going back to the end of 2015, the Federal Reserve has lifted the Fed Funds rate up from its zero lower bound to target a range of 1.25% to 1.50%, with additional tightening anticipated in 2018. Often, when places model risk, it is assumed that when short-term rates move, long-term rates will move parallel.  Thus, […]

September 14, 2017

What-If Analysis In The Decision-Making Process – Test Your Hypothesis

Performing what-if analysis is an integral part of both the A/LM and budget processes. When used correctly, what-if analysis is a powerful way for decision-makers to understand the impact of items under consideration in real-time. The challenge is that often people dive right into modeling and results, producing a less than optimal process. Consider applying […]

February 18, 2016

OBSERVATIONS FROM ALM MODEL VALIDATIONS: DO DECAY RATES MATTER?

Yes. Decay rates do matter, but they are often not appropriately applied in the asset/liability management (ALM) process. Decay rates are essential for capturing the risk of evolving member behavior, namely deposit migration, as rates change. This blog will focus on using decay rates when simulating net economic value (NEV). Model validations typically reveal two […]

Start typing and press Enter to search