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February 18, 2016

OBSERVATIONS FROM ALM MODEL VALIDATIONS: DO DECAY RATES MATTER?

Yes. Decay rates do matter, but they are often not appropriately applied in the asset/liability management (ALM) process. Decay rates are essential for capturing the risk of evolving member behavior, namely deposit migration, as rates change. This blog will focus on using decay rates when simulating net economic value (NEV). Model validations typically reveal two […]

November 20, 2015

Observations from ALM Model Validations: Extremely Profitable New Business ROA in Static Balance Sheet Simulations

In this installment of our series on observations from model validations, we’ll focus in on the results from traditional income simulations, specifically static balance sheet simulations. We often see results that show low risk despite the credit union having a material amount of fixed-rate, long-term assets. Take the example below which shows the NII results […]

November 5, 2015

Observations from ALM Model Validations: Optimistic New Volume Rate Assumptions

When running static or dynamic balance sheet income simulations, assumptions regarding the interest rates received on new business are needed. On the surface, this seems to be an easier assumption to make relative to some of the other assumptions needed in asset/liability management modeling (ALM modeling). However, in model validations we have performed, we have […]

September 3, 2015

Observations from ALM Model Validations: Cost of Funds Back Testing

In the course of working with hundreds of credit unions and performing A/LM model validations, one area of weakness we see is in assumptions related to the cost of funds. Quite often, the modeled cost of funds does not (without good reason) represent historical costs as rates rise. There are two major assumptions that influence […]

May 28, 2015

Betas – An Unintended Consequence of Simplifying Pricing Assumptions

Non-maturity deposits (NMDs) and their treatment in A/LM modeling is often a hot-button topic with examiners and management teams.  While there are key risk characteristics of NMDs not addressed with many methodologies (see previous blog entries below), the topic of this blog concerns NMD pricing assumptions. Blog:  Isolating Interest Rate Risk with a Static Balance […]

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