c. myblog

October 9, 2014

How is Your Modeling Positioned to Capture NCUA’s “Chief Concern”?

In the most recent NCUA Economic Update, John Worth (Chief Economist, NCUA) outlined NCUA’s chief concern regarding the impact of a changing rate environment, given an interpretation of recent Federal Reserve comments and data analysis. See below for a key quote from the video: “If the increase in short rates is larger than the increase […]

September 26, 2014

Isolating Interest Rate Risk with a Static Balance Sheet

Some will say that a static balance sheet income simulation achieves its objective of isolating interest rate risk by reducing the variables in the simulation. The question then is: What risk should be isolated? Interest rates change and cash flows do not change Interest rates change and cash flows change in response If the answer […]

September 11, 2014

Why Are My Income Simulation Results so Strong in a Shock?

In performing model validations for credit unions, we often see income simulation results that show significant improvement in net interest income (NII) and net income (NI) as rates rise, even for credit unions that have material positions in long-term, fixed-rate assets.  Why does this happen, and is it reasonable? Income simulations are commonly run with […]

August 1, 2014

Is Your Interest Rate Risk Model Incorporating the Risk of Deposit Mix Changes?

Recently, we blogged about interest rate risk (IRR) modeling methodologies that can give credit unions a false sense of security. (See blog titled “Is Your Risk Methodology Giving You a False Sense of Security?” Posted on July 3, 2014.) We noted that traditional income simulation seldom incorporates the risk of non-maturity deposit withdrawals or member […]

November 8, 2012

Examiner FAQs

We frequently hear about examiner inquiries regarding non-maturity deposit assumptions in credit union A/LM models.  The question is usually along the lines of, “what are the non-maturity deposit assumptions used in the A/LM modeling and how were they determined?” Non-maturity deposit assumptions include pricing sensitivity and withdrawal sensitivity.  When it comes to pricing sensitivity the […]

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