c. myblog

November 5, 2015

Observations from ALM Model Validations: Optimistic New Volume Rate Assumptions

When running static or dynamic balance sheet income simulations, assumptions regarding the interest rates received on new business are needed. On the surface, this seems to be an easier assumption to make relative to some of the other assumptions needed in asset/liability management modeling (ALM modeling). However, in model validations we have performed, we have […]

September 3, 2015

Observations from ALM Model Validations: Cost of Funds Back Testing

In the course of working with hundreds of credit unions and performing A/LM model validations, one area of weakness we see is in assumptions related to the cost of funds. Quite often, the modeled cost of funds does not (without good reason) represent historical costs as rates rise. There are two major assumptions that influence […]

May 28, 2015

Betas – An Unintended Consequence of Simplifying Pricing Assumptions

Non-maturity deposits (NMDs) and their treatment in A/LM modeling is often a hot-button topic with examiners and management teams.  While there are key risk characteristics of NMDs not addressed with many methodologies (see previous blog entries below), the topic of this blog concerns NMD pricing assumptions. Blog:  Isolating Interest Rate Risk with a Static Balance […]

October 9, 2014

How is Your Modeling Positioned to Capture NCUA’s “Chief Concern”?

In the most recent NCUA Economic Update, John Worth (Chief Economist, NCUA) outlined NCUA’s chief concern regarding the impact of a changing rate environment, given an interpretation of recent Federal Reserve comments and data analysis. See below for a key quote from the video: “If the increase in short rates is larger than the increase […]

September 26, 2014

Isolating Interest Rate Risk with a Static Balance Sheet

Some will say that a static balance sheet income simulation achieves its objective of isolating interest rate risk by reducing the variables in the simulation. The question then is: What risk should be isolated? Interest rates change and cash flows do not change Interest rates change and cash flows change in response If the answer […]

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