c. myers live – COVID-19 Economic Health Path Scenarios
March 30, 2020
We recognize that credit union leaders are facing uncertainties now more than ever. Conversations with our clients are happening daily to help with strategic thinking, strategic planning, and financial modeling. C. myers live is an opportunity to take these conversations to the masses.
There is an unlimited number of paths that the future may hold. To aid communication, the following labels represent economic paths of varying magnitude. We are using unemployment as a high-level descriptor – in essence the bones of the scenarios. In test-driving these scenarios it is important to add meat to the bones. Other factors must be considered, such as consumers’ and work force psyches, liquidity ramifications, the competitive landscape, distribution channels, and of course innovations as a result of this crisis. Keep in mind that the scenarios below are not predictions and you can use these to create other scenarios with different speeds to recovery, etc.
Scenario 1: Minute Clinic
Unemployment increases to 4-5% in the near term. By June, the economy is improving and the year ends where we started (~3.5%) with rates heading back up.
Scenario 2: Urgent Care
Unemployment increases materially – hitting 6-8% by the end of the year. We experience a recession through 1Q/2021. Recovery takes 1-2 years.
Scenario 3: Hospital Stay
Unemployment increases dramatically hitting 10% (peak of Great Recession) by 3Q. Deep recession lasts through 3Q/2021. Gradual recovery takes 3+ years.
Scenario 4: Extended ICU with Long-term Disability
Unemployment skyrockets to 20% by end of the year. Another wave of the virus hits 1Q/2021 and unemployment increases to 30%. We experience a depression level event for 3 years. Recovery takes 5+ years.
Send us your questions, we can address on a future c. myers live or reach out to you directly. We are here to help you think and explore options. We have experience working with over 600 financial institutions, including 25% of the credit unions over $100 million in assets and 50% of the credit unions over $1 billion in assets.
We can appreciate how recent events are impacting the normal course of business and are happy to schedule time outside of normal business hours – early in the morning, late at night, or on the weekend, as needed.
You can reach us at 800.238.7475 | 602.840.0606 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
About the Hosts:
Brian, one of five c. myers owners, has worked closely with credit union Boards and managements of all sizes in a variety of capacities. As a strategic planning facilitator, CEOs regularly praise Brian’s industry knowledge, calming communication skills, ability to authentically engage anyone with whom he interacts, and ability to keep discussions focused on linking strategy with desired measures of success.
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Sally is a founder of c. myers corporation and one of five owners. Driven by a deep commitment to helping credit union leaders and regulators for more than two decades, her guidance has shaped c. myers’ focus on client support and leadership development. Sally has facilitated hundreds of strategic planning, governance, and business model evaluation sessions, and has spoken at countless national and regional industry conferences.
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