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Why Are My Income Simulation Results so Strong in a Shock?

In performing model validations for credit unions, we often see income simulation results that show significant improvement in net interest income (NII) and net income (NI) as rates rise, even for credit unions that have material positions in long-term, fixed-rate assets.  Why does this happen, and is it reasonable? Income simulations are commonly run with […]

Risk/Return Trade-Off—Part II

In last week’s blog, we discussed the need to understand risk/return trade-offs and the concern in relying solely on net economic value (NEV) for decision-making. If the objective is to decrease NEV volatility and your strategy under consideration is to A) Sell 30-year mortgages or B) Sell a 3-year bullet, does NEV fairly represent the […]

Risk/Return Trade-Off—Part I

Cliché? Yes. Often overlooked in decision-making? Also yes. This current long-lasting low rate environment has lulled some credit unions into ignoring the risk of things changing, such as an increase in rates. The focus on return without proper respect for potential risk has led to a material increase in interest rate risk in some institutions, […]

Is Your Risk Methodology Giving You a False Sense of Security?

A recent front page article in the Wall Street Journal caused quite a stir by claiming that credit unions are “piling into longer-term assets, exposing the firms to potentially significant losses if interest rates rise…” The objective of this blog is not to debate whether there is or is not too much interest rate risk […]

Cost of Funds: Pulling Together Deposit Assumptions

There is a lot of debate on the mathematics and methodology for deposit withdrawal speed and deposit pricing assumptions in different rate environments. Let’s step back for a moment and first ask the question: What is the objective of developing the deposit assumptions? Ultimately, the end objective of these assumptions is to arrive at a […]

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