How Multi-Year Forecasting Fuels Strategic Success for Financial Institutions

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7 minute read – Financial institutions operate in a dynamic environment where strategic planning is crucial for long-term success.  Wouldn’t it be valuable for organizations to utilize tools that help visualize the economic implications of achieving or not achieving their strategic goals?  The fantastic news is that longer-term financial forecasts are tailor-made to do just that. Below, we highlight how multi-year financial forecasts can drive strategic decision-making, the key stakeholders involved, and how modern forecasting tools can streamline the process. 

Importance of Multi-Year Financial Forecasts:

Strategic Alignment 

Multi-year financial forecasts ensure that financial planning aligns with the institution’s strategic goals.  By projecting future financial performance, banks and credit unions can assess whether their current strategies will lead to desired outcomes. 

These forecasts help identify potential gaps between strategic objectives and financial capabilities, allowing for timely adjustments.  Engaging key stakeholders, such as executives in lending, finance, and marketing, ensures that forecasts reflect a well-rounded perspective of institutional goals. 

Example:  A financial institution aiming to expand its business lending services can use multi-year forecasts to determine necessary capital investments and analyze potential returns over the next five years. 

Resource Allocation 

Effective resource allocation is critical for achieving strategic goals.  Multi-year forecasts provide insights into future resource needs, helping institutions allocate capital, personnel, and technology investments more efficiently. 

This ensures that resources are directed toward initiatives that drive long-term growth and profitability. 

Example:  An organization planning to enhance artificial intelligence utilization can forecast required technology investments and personnel costs over the coming years. 

Risk Scenarios 

Financial forecasts enable institutions to anticipate potential risks and uncertainties.  By modeling different scenarios, banks and credit unions can prepare for adverse conditions and develop contingency plans. 

This proactive approach to risk management enhances the institution’s resilience and stability. 

Example:  A financial institution can use scenario analysis to evaluate the impact of an economic downturn on its loan portfolio and adjust risk management strategies accordingly. 

Performance Measurement 

Financial forecasts serve as benchmarks for measuring performance.  By comparing actual results against forecasted figures, banks and credit unions can evaluate the effectiveness of their strategies. 

This continuous performance measurement fosters a culture of accountability and continuous improvement. 

Example:  An organization can track progress related to increasing deposits by comparing actual deposit growth against forecasted targets. 

Forecasts Illustrate the Impacts of Achieving Strategic Goals:

Enhanced Financial Stability 

Achieving strategic goals can lead to improved financial stability.  Institutions that meet their targets are better positioned to generate growth, maintain strong capital ratios, and enhance organizational value. 

This stability helps market position and provides greater strategic flexibility to take advantage of potential opportunities such as mergers and acquisitions. 

Competitive Advantage 

Successfully executing strategic plans provides a competitive edge.  Banks and credit unions that achieve their goals are better positioned to offer innovative products and services, expand their market share, and build stronger customer relationships. 

Forecasts Highlight Implications of Not Achieving Strategic Goals:

Financial Strain 

Failing to achieve strategic goals can result in financial strain. Institutions may face declining profits, increased operational costs, and reduced capital adequacy. 

This financial pressure can limit the institution’s ability to invest in growth opportunities and respond to market changes. 

Reputational Risk 

Not meeting strategic objectives can damage the institution’s reputation.  Stakeholders, including customers and regulators, may lose confidence in the institution’s ability to deliver on its promises. 

This loss of trust can lead to decreased customer loyalty and increased regulatory scrutiny. 

Leveraging New Forecasting Tools for Greater Impact 

Forecasting is a team sport and should involve key players from various areas of the organization such as lending, finance, marketing, and operations.  Engaging these stakeholders ensures comprehensive insights and broader perspectives.  Modern forecasting tools now make it easier than ever to create detailed multi-year forecasts in a fraction of the time it historically took. 

By leveraging new forecasting tools, institutions can:  

  • Automate data analysis and scenario planning. 
  • Improve collaboration with real-time updates. 
  • Enhance accuracy with built-in sensitivity analysis. 

With these advancements, there are no longer excuses for not using forecasting to inform strategic planning and decision-making. 

Multi-year financial forecasts are indispensable tools for financial institutions.  They provide a clear roadmap for achieving strategic goals, managing risks, and optimizing resource allocation.  By leveraging these forecasts and modern forecasting tools, institutions can enhance financial stability, gain a competitive advantage, and ensure long-term success.  Conversely, failing to utilize forecasts could lead to unnecessary financial strain and reputational risks. 

Now is the time to take action and integrate forecasting into your strategic planning to achieve financial and operational excellence. 

*Portions of this blog were edited with the assistance of AI.

Strategic Thinking: An Approach to Strategic Planning

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8 minute read – Each year we work with hundreds of financial institutions, helping them think through their business model for today and into the future.  Because of the successes we’re seeing, we thought it would be helpful to outline processes and habits that can help strengthen the thinking among leaders and Boards across the industry.  By focusing on ways to strengthen thinking, particularly on how decision makers in your organization are thinking, you can position your organization to be better able to examine multiple perspectives then expand, revise, and build on them.

Once a year planning sessions are not enough.  Let’s start high-level by framing what an approach to strategic planning through strategic thinking might look like.  More and more, we find that once a year planning sessions aren’t enough to keep up with the pace of change.  Our clients have found tremendous value and relief by shifting away from a singular planning session where many big decisions are made to include regular strategic thinking discussions throughout the year so that when big decisions need to be made, they feel more prepared.  This cadence allows ample time for identified stakeholders to gather and research necessary data and business intelligence to help inform the strategic decisions when the time comes.

This graphic, from futurist Amy Webb, is reflective of the timing of the type of thinking and planning we encourage our clients to engage in.  The further into the future, the more it is about exploring what-ifs and potential scenarios without making decisions.

 

By expanding the more traditional strategic planning process to include strategic thinking opportunities throughout the year, teams are better able to build awareness, have alignment, and pivot quickly while staying focused on the strategic view.  Practicing strategic thinking can take a multitude of forms but here are some specific tools that can help initiate these types of discussions.

  • Align Board and leadership team’s tolerance for risk.  Taking time to complete a visual check-in – like the example shown below – and engaging in a follow up discussion can help your team understand individuals’ risk tolerance across a range of areas and ask what steps you can take today to help set you on that path.  This can also be an opportunity to ask why.  Risk tolerance is often a reflection of people’s previous experiences, or lack thereof, so engaging in conversation is a pivotal component.  While there isn’t a strict timeline for this conversation to happen, we recommend making this a routine part of your team’s conversations either annually or semi-annually or whenever big environmental changes happen as these can affect people’s sense of risk.

The areas of risk included below are examples only.  Depending on the labels you decide, categories of risk could mean many different things.  Take time to gain clarity so everyone is assessing from the same understanding – when your organization defines relevancy risk what does that mean?  For some, it means AI and technology, and for others it reflects branding.

 

 

 

 

 

We find it beneficial to consider both the average answers and the range of responses;  in this visual example, the mountains illustrate respondents’ answers and indicate that respondents are not aligned.  By exploring why respondents have varying assessments and appetites, you can engage in discussion to better determine how to approach your future path and develop cohesion among stakeholders.

 

  • Review the Business Model Clarity questions.
    • Why?  Clarify the driving purpose of your organization.  Why do you exist?
    • Who?  Who is your target market?  What segments of the market should be the strategic focus of your business?
    • What?  What is your value proposition?  What should you do/offer that your target market will find valuable and will motivate them to do business with you?
    • How?  How will you deliver on that value proposition better than your competitors?  What do you do/have internally that is unique?

Similar to risk tolerance, gaining understanding and alignment on these questions can help guide your approach to opportunities and challenges your institution faces as the world around us continues to change.  Additionally, like the risk tolerance conversation, you may not need to have this conversation more than once or twice a year, but every member of your decision-making team should be able to articulate these ideas so that they help drive your decisions.

  • Adjacent markets matter.  Think beyond the financial institution and beyond the typical 3-5 years of a strategic plan.  Look for emerging trends – what’s happening in other industries?  Many financial institutions are striving to be the easier place to do business, citing the personalization and accessibility that is becoming the expectation across industries.  Taking time to step outside of the financial industry and looking at what is happening in other business sectors can help you understand what is influencing consumer’s perceptions of what is “easy” and what’s table stakes.

These conversations can be shorter in length and might incorporate some pre-work or prereading.  Consider making these routine practices among your team – scheduling monthly or bi-monthly meetings to have these kinds of conversations can help you stretch your strategic thinking and create cohesion in your team.

  • Game changers.  Another conversation to have might be as simple as identifying potential game changers of the next 5-10 years and getting a sense of what kind of likelihood and impact your team thinks these might have.  By thinking without committing, teams can feel freer to explore a wide range of what-ifs without feeling restricted by the consequences of decision-making.  These conversations might happen in conjunction with thinking about adjacent markets – use this exercise as a means to identify potential topics to prioritize in your strategic scenario thinking practices.

Each organization’s perspective on potential game changers can be quite different but the image below is an example of what you might include.

A scatterplot can aggregate strategic planning session participants’ thoughts on what might be game changers, the likelihood these things will happen, and the degree of impact they anticipate these might have on their financial institution and consumers.  Some survey platforms also illustrate the range of individual answers which can be key in facilitating discussion.

 

  • Always come back to your core purpose.  As you will probably notice through your regular strategic thinking practice, lots of shiny new technology and opportunities will come and go.  In much the same way that being clear on your risk tolerance can help guide these conversations, understanding your why as an organization can act as a compass amid a rapidly changing world.  Ask yourselves, how do you keep your purpose front and center as thinking deeply becomes a path towards action – while not all thinking needs to become action, remembering your purpose can help you filter what opportunities are in line with your business model.

The way you approach strategic planning and the thinking behind it needs to evolve if you hope to stay competitive in this changing world.  Even in organizations that are happy with their strategic plan, leaders are excited to utilize these conversations as a tool to think strategically about the future and continue to build their capacity for thinking.  If you can make engaging in thinking that stretches your perceptions a key and continuous component of your strategic planning process, then your ability to optimize your business model, timely, will increase tremendously.

Don’t Wait for Rates to Drop: How to Strategically Prepare for Mortgage Growth

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3 minute read – It might seem like an odd time to think about a mortgage loan boom.  Mortgage originations through Q3 2024 are pacing similarly to 2023, one of the lowest years in two decades.  Mortgage rates remain high, closer to 7% than 6%, with forecasts for 2025 suggesting rates will stay above 6%.  Yet, these very conditions make this an ideal moment for scenario planning around increased mortgage demand.  High rates often create pent-up demand as borrowers wait for more favorable conditions.  When rates eventually decline—whether gradually or sharply—financial institutions that have prepared will be better positioned to capitalize.  Scenario planning connects strategy, risk, financial performance, product development, customer experience, and process efficiency.  It’s about asking, “what if?” to refine lending strategies, streamline operations, and prepare to meet customer needs effectively when the market shifts.  The organizations that take the time to plan now will lead when opportunities emerge.

Start by working through a strategic thinking scenario.  For example:

Mortgage rates fall below 5.5% for the first time in years.  Purchase mortgage volume triples as many homeowners with mortgage rates under 4.5% decide that the combination of the large equity they’ve built up, a lower lock-in gap, and the desire for a new home is enough to make a move.  Refi demand increases dramatically as those who took a “buy now, refi later” approach decide it’s time for a lower rate. 

Think through a series of questions. Below are just some of the questions to consider:

  • How would we define success in this scenario?  What are the measures or KPIs that will help us track our progress?
  • What is our risk tolerance in this scenario?
  • What tools do we have to manage the risk of increased mortgages (selling, derivatives, etc.)?
  • How will our financial structure and risk be impacted based on our risk tolerance and the amount and types of mortgages we portfolio and/or sell?  Running multiple “what-if” scenarios through your ALM model can help clarify the impact of different decisions.
  • What are the key priorities or service level agreements that we don’t want to sacrifice when it comes to customer experience?
  • What is our capacity to deliver an excellent experience through the whole mortgage process if this scenario happens tomorrow?
  • How could we be prepared to scale up for this scenario and then scale down if needed?
  • What levers could we pull if volume increases outpace our ability to scale capacity while maintaining quality?  During the pandemic, some institutions prioritized existing customers over new customers
  • How proactive would we want to be with our current customers to refi their mortgage?
  • How is our current product offering positioned to take advantage of the opportunities in this scenario?

While mortgage originations remain historically low and interest rates stay elevated, preparing for the next refinancing or mortgage demand wave is a strategic imperative.  Anticipating scenarios where rates may drop below 5.5% and understanding the resulting surge in demand ensures your institution remains agile and competitive.

By proactive scenario planning, you can define success metrics, refine your risk management strategies, and enhance operational capacity—all while prioritizing customer experience and service excellence.  This approach allows your institution to capitalize on market shifts, turning potential challenges into opportunities for growth and customer loyalty.

c. myers live – Empowering Teams Beyond the Same Ten People

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As organizations grapple with resource constraints and the need to develop future leaders, the challenge of relying on the “Same Ten People” (STP) becomes more pronounced.  In this episode of c. myers live, we explore the concept of STP and how it affects project execution, talent development, and organizational resilience Join us as we discuss practical strategies for breaking the STP cycle, empowering broader teams, and fostering a culture of engagement and growth that benefits the entire organization. 

 

About the Hosts:

Lisa Camper

Lisa, a vice president and one of c. myers’ owners, has helped propel financial institutions forward to reach their organizational strategic goals since 2014 She regularly takes on key roles in a wide range of engagements with clients as they move their organizations forward through endeavors, such as Process Improvement, Strategic Leadership Development, Strategic Implementation, and Strategic Planning.  Our clients appreciate Lisa’s range of experience combined with her perspective as a millennial.

Learn more about Lisa

Amanda Hohimer

Since joining c. myers in 2004, Amanda has served in many leadership roles, including facilitating and co-facilitating Strategic Planning, Strategic Implementation, and Process Improvement engagements for our clients.  Amanda brings a fresh, upbeat energy to her facilitation style that encourages participation and productive conversation

Learn more about Amanda

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180-Second Exercise: New CFPB Ruling

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We talk with financial executives every day about the challenges and opportunities surrounding regulatory changes, and the new CFPB rule to close overdraft loopholes is no exception. This initiative, aimed at saving Americans billions in fees, is a timely and significant shift in the financial landscape. For institutions, it raises important questions about compliance, revenue, and customer relationships. 

The following is a 180-second exercise prompts that can help encourage unique thinking. As a reminder, 180-second exercises are a tool for brainstorming.  The idea is to be fast and creative – make sure analysis of your ideas doesn’t stifle your imagination.    

Set a timer for 180 seconds and have your team jot down their thoughts.   

What are 20 positive outcomes that could emerge from this change? 

After the timer goes off, gather the team to share their ideas and identify recurring themes or trends in the responses. Use these insights as a springboard for deeper discussions on how your institution can adapt to and capitalize on this regulatory change, ensuring you stay ahead while delivering meaningful value to your customers.