Posts

/by

Linking Strategy With Desired Financial Performance

,

The strategic planning season is right around the corner. At the end of their overall strategic planning process, many credit unions believe they have linked strategy with their desired financial performance. Some credit unions decide on targeted financial ratios and believe they are linking strategy with financial performance, but not high-functioning credit unions. They simulate the long-term earnings and risk to earnings of their strategy to understand if it is positioned to produce the credit union’s desired financial performance.

High-functioning credit unions focus on what it will take to keep a business model fine tuned, not allowing it to get stale. They make sure they are more stellar than their competition at one, two or three things. They also make sure they are delivering a unique value proposition for the markets they are targeting. They dig into the data that is at their fingertips because, for example, they know how many approved loan applications were actually funded and they do everything possible to not let approved loan applicants slip away. High-functioning credit unions also know what percentage of transactions happen in branches, the call center and electronically – and they consider those transaction trends in their strategic planning process.

They also focus on creating and maintaining a sustainable ROA, long term. With margins in the 2s for the overall industry, figuring out how to do this is tough work – but critical. For example, high-functioning credit unions are constantly on the lookout for additional sources of non-interest income without taking advantage of members. They make sure their limited resources are being allocated appropriately. In other words, they make sure there is an ROI for every expense.

There are a number of other things high-functioning credit unions habitually do, but what we have included here should help credit unions focus on the right questions to be asking – and answering.

/by

Annual Long-Term Financial Planning Process: Include A Deflation Scenario

, , , ,

We strongly recommend that credit unions annually invest the time to forecast financial performance for at least three future years.  The baseline forecast should compliment the strategic plan and include the cost of major initiatives, as well as expected growth trends.  If the baseline does not produce satisfactory performance, determine what changes could be made.  Once a baseline is established, senior management should identify the issues they feel could have the biggest impact on future financial performance and then test each issue as a what-if.  Typical what-ifs include:

  • Provision for loan loss doubles from the baseline plan for 24 months
  • Non-interest income decreases 50%
  • Lending volume declines significantly
  • NCUSIF assessments are twice the level in the baseline
  • Interest rates increase to the credit union’s self-defined, worst-case scenario

We recommend that a deflation scenario be included as well.  Many management teams have not discussed the possible impact of a sustained period of deflation, and even fewer have taken the time to forecast the possible financial impact of such a scenario.  Following a structured strategic thinking exercise on deflation could be helpful to explore the issue.  Create the what-if forecast by evaluating the impact on all major components of the financial structure and updating assumptions.  Often these forecasts include lower long-term rates including loan rates and investment rates, an increase in loan and investment prepayments, decreased loan demand and an increase in deposits.  While this may sound similar to today’s economic environment, the magnitude of such conditions may be greater.  For example, long-term rates could fall to 2% or lower and loan growth could decrease materially due to accelerated prepayments and consumers postponing purchases.

Management teams are often surprised by the possible significant, negative financial impact of a deflation scenario.

As with all of the what-ifs tested in this process, if the financial performance is not acceptable, determine what actions could be taken and test the impact of these actions.  At the conclusion of the exercise, decide if any of the actions to address the risks in the what-ifs should be implemented in the baseline plan.

/by

Establishing Concentration Limits

, ,

Establishing concentration limits that enable you to make sustainable, sound business decisions while trying to satisfy new regulatory pressure is very tricky.

The supervisory letter on concentration risk states that examples of concentrations within an asset class include…

“Residential Real Estate Loans—collateral type, lien position, geographic area, non-traditional terms (such as interest-only, payment option, or balloon payment), fixed or variable interest rates, low or reduced underwriting documentation, and loan-to-value (LTV).”

If you are contemplating multifactor concentration limits as described above, consider the following example and how this approach could impact your strategy and business decisions.

Let’s assume:

8 real estate types, with
4 different LTV ranges for
20 ZIP codes (geographic areas) and
6 credit score ranges, would result in

3,840 total risk limits for the Residential Real Estate Loans

Keep in mind the above example is just for Residential Real Estate.  Imagine applying the same multifactor approach to other asset categories.  The number of limits can become daunting and unmanageable.

We recommend listing every limit on a single piece of paper to help decision makers understand the magnitude of their potential policy commitments.

Slicing and dicing portfolios absolutely is a key component of portfolio analysis and risk management.  However, we are concerned that the establishment of these limits in policy is being rushed in anticipation of the next exam or, during the exam process, examiners are pressuring credit unions to establish concentration limits quickly.

Rushing to establish concentration limits without appropriate analysis, including potential impact to strategy and business model, could result in unintended consequences with serious implications.  Not to mention the red flag noted in the supervisory letter regarding changing concentration limits if a credit union is outside of policy.

We highly recommend following a deliberate process to establish limits.  Test drive your limits under various economic scenarios to understand, in advance, how they will impact strategy and business decisions.  This includes the changes that may be necessary to the credit union’s business model in order to manage within the new limits.

This blog addresses only a sliver of the issues regarding concentration limits.  There certainly will be more to follow, such as the correlation between the speed with which concentration increases and poor financial performance.