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Have You Reviewed Your Policies Recently?

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Historically, credit unions may have been wary of making material changes to their policies, whether an A/LM policy, Liquidity policy, Investment policy or broader Financial Management policy – for fear of raising regulatory “red flags.”  However, with the adoption of the final rule on interest rate risk (§741.3(b)(5)(i)), and the effective implementation date of September 30, 2012, many credit unions are finding this a great time to revisit their policies.  While reviewing policy, some key questions must be asked:

  • How does the policy help promote safety and soundness, while also reflecting the risk appetite of the credit union’s board and senior management?
  • Have there been situations in recent history where policy limits or guidelines have “tied hands” with respect to making sound business decisions?
  • Conversely, are there limits or guidelines in policy that have aided in the decision-making process, potentially saving the credit union from less than favorable outcomes?
  • How can we effectively construct policy limits and/or guidelines to both satisfy regulatory requirements and aid in the decision-making process of the board and senior management?

With heightened industry awareness surrounding interest rate risk, and increasing regulatory pressure to mitigate the risk being taken by some credit unions today, would it possibly raise more regulatory “red flags” if a credit union did not revisit relevant policies prior to the September 30 implementation date?  A good policy has limits and guidelines intended to promote risk management and safety and soundness.  A great policy has limits and guidelines intended to promote risk management and safety and soundness, but most importantly, provisions that drive dialogue to aid in the decision-making process.  While revisiting policy this year, the above questions will help take your existing policy from “good” to great.

Annual Long-Term Financial Planning Process: Include A Deflation Scenario

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We strongly recommend that credit unions annually invest the time to forecast financial performance for at least three future years.  The baseline forecast should compliment the strategic plan and include the cost of major initiatives, as well as expected growth trends.  If the baseline does not produce satisfactory performance, determine what changes could be made.  Once a baseline is established, senior management should identify the issues they feel could have the biggest impact on future financial performance and then test each issue as a what-if.  Typical what-ifs include:

  • Provision for loan loss doubles from the baseline plan for 24 months
  • Non-interest income decreases 50%
  • Lending volume declines significantly
  • NCUSIF assessments are twice the level in the baseline
  • Interest rates increase to the credit union’s self-defined, worst-case scenario

We recommend that a deflation scenario be included as well.  Many management teams have not discussed the possible impact of a sustained period of deflation, and even fewer have taken the time to forecast the possible financial impact of such a scenario.  Following a structured strategic thinking exercise on deflation could be helpful to explore the issue.  Create the what-if forecast by evaluating the impact on all major components of the financial structure and updating assumptions.  Often these forecasts include lower long-term rates including loan rates and investment rates, an increase in loan and investment prepayments, decreased loan demand and an increase in deposits.  While this may sound similar to today’s economic environment, the magnitude of such conditions may be greater.  For example, long-term rates could fall to 2% or lower and loan growth could decrease materially due to accelerated prepayments and consumers postponing purchases.

Management teams are often surprised by the possible significant, negative financial impact of a deflation scenario.

As with all of the what-ifs tested in this process, if the financial performance is not acceptable, determine what actions could be taken and test the impact of these actions.  At the conclusion of the exercise, decide if any of the actions to address the risks in the what-ifs should be implemented in the baseline plan.