Posts

/by

What-If Analysis In The Decision-Making Process – Test Your Hypothesis

,

Performing what-if analysis is an integral part of both the A/LM and budget processes. When used correctly, what-if analysis is a powerful way for decision-makers to understand the impact of items under consideration in real-time. The challenge is that often people dive right into modeling and results, producing a less than optimal process. Consider applying a scientific method to the what-if analysis to help strengthen the decision-making process.

The scientific method is essentially a hypothesis-driven methodology. Strong hypotheses lead to expectations either supported or refuted by analysis. What does this all mean? Well, it isn’t as intimidating as it might sound. From a financial modeling perspective, it means don’t just blindly rely on model results.

To help explain this concept further, consider a $1B credit union evaluating a strategy of moving $10M from overnights into 30-year fixed-rate mortgages:

What-If Analysis Test Your Hypothesis as Part of Decision-making Process

 

Before performing a what-if, the scientific method suggests that you first ask what you expect the results to look like, and then create a hypothesis. Start broadly with what you generally expect to happen to earnings in the current rate environment and the risk. In this case, the shift from overnights to mortgages should help earnings in today’s rate environment, adding risk as rates rise.

After identifying the broad expectation, take the next step and do some rough math to estimate the return on assets (ROA) impact of the what-if. Here, a $1B institution testing a strategy of moving 1.00% of its assets could expect a 3-basis-point improvement in the initial ROA (1% of assets multiplied by a 3% increase in yield):

What-If Analysis Testing Your Hypothesis as part of decision-making process

 

On the risk side, you can do the same with the impact to the net economic value (NEV) dollars since understanding the valuation impact is relatively straightforward. Overnights are at par in all rate environments while brand new 30-year mortgages devalue about 20% in a +300 basis points (bps) rate environment. Therefore, you’d expect to see a roughly $2M decrease in your NEV dollars in the +300 bps rate environment:

What-If Analysis as Part of the Decision-making Process Test Your Hypothesis

 

Analysis and observation are the next important steps in the scientific method. Run the what-if through the model and analyze the results in comparison to your expectation and rough math. Do the results of the what-if validate the hypothesis and, if not, why?

Periodically, results may not match up with the hypothesis, which is okay. It doesn’t necessarily mean the model or the hypothesis is incorrect. There could be other factors impacting the what-if. However, it is important to figure out why the results do not match up, especially if the difference is due to an input error.

For the example above, consider some of the following questions that could affect the what-if, causing the hypothesis and results not to match:

  • What was the credit risk assumption?
  • Will additional operating expenses and/or marketing dollars be needed to attract the growth?
  • Did we incorporate any fee income for the closing costs?
  • How long will it take to increase the portfolio $10M?

 

When it comes to the what-if process, shortcuts should not be taken. Always create an expectation internally before relying on model results. Depending exclusively on model results puts the user at risk of input errors and/or an inability to effectively explain what-if results.

/by

Back In The Subprime Game

, ,

In a recent issue of the Wall Street Journal, Lewis Ranieri—once known as the father of mortgage finance—said it is time for nontraditional lenders to enter the market, bringing with them a return to subprime lending.  Ranieri said “the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction,” meaning that lending standards were once too loose and are now too rigid.

The implosion of subprime loans four years ago set off a domino effect that continues to impact global economies today.  As financial institutions struggle to regain their footing, lending opportunities have narrowed for all but the most creditworthy applicants.  Yet lending is a material source of income that could help financial institutions to recover and thrive.

The collateral damage from this recession varies by state.  If your credit union is ready to loosen underwriting standards—even if you stop short of subprime lending—it will be important to strategically plan for all variables involved.  The scars earned in the current economy should serve as a sufficient reminder to avoid being burned in the future.

(Sources:  Pioneer to Revisit Subprime, WSJ, 6/24/11 and Image by Bart Claeys)

/by

Do You Have A Clear Philosophy On Fees?

, ,

With fee income under fire, it is becoming more important than ever for credit union boards and managements to be able to articulate their philosophies on fees.  Simply saying, “We don’t like to fee our members” is not enough.  Most credit unions are already considering, if not implementing, new fees and fee increases—not because they want to fee their membership, but because they feel that replacing lost fee income and/or offsetting increasing expenses is a financial necessity.

Consider the following when discussing fees and fee pricing:

  • Cover Costs—Fees can be implemented to put the burden on the party that is incurring the costs rather than making the entire membership carry the costs.  Take the example of check-cashers.  Check-cashers typically are not contributing members but use a lot of credit union resources.  One answer to this dilemma is to decide that it’s okay to cash checks as long as the costs are covered with a fee.  In this case, it must also be okay to have the check-cashers go elsewhere if they decide that they don’t want to pay the fee
  • Strategy—The fee structure and pricing must support the credit union’s strategy.  A credit union that is building its mortgage business may choose to charge mortgage fees that do not cover all costs.  The rationale could be that the costs will be covered with future interest income while charging more fees today could drive potential borrowers away.  The important thing is that the fees align, and are not in conflict, with the strategy
  • Member Behavior—Some fees are intended to change member behavior.  An example is paper statement fees.  The purpose of these fees is to encourage members to get statements online, enabling the credit union to reduce expenses directly attributable to paper statements.  In addition, the credit union may hope members will shift to using more electronic services, reducing branch and phone transactions
  • The Bottom Line—Fees are sometimes instituted to improve the bottom line, although this is often only part of the reason.  Improving the bottom line often goes hand-in-hand with covering costs and altering member behavior
  • What the Market Will Bear—As a practical matter, fees that most institutions charge are included on many credit unions’ fee schedules simply because the market expects to pay them.  This approach is also used in deciding fee pricing as opposed to pricing to cover costs.  However, it is important to understand the hard costs.  It should be a conscious decision to charge a fee that does not cover the cost

This is the perfect time to discuss and clarify the credit union’s fee income philosophy.  Having decision-makers on the same page will help align upcoming fee structure changes with the credit union’s philosophy and strategy.

/by

Are Your Second Mortgages Secured?

, , ,

As we discussed in our April post, Bankruptcies on the Rise and the Evolving U.S. Debt Burden, bankruptcies have been rising at an alarming rate this year. The trend is likely to continue—it will be interesting to note how the situation evolves (since 1st quarter) when the U.S. Judiciary releases second quarter figures in the coming weeks.

In the meantime, more and more consumers are taking advantage of a loophole in Chapter 13 bankruptcy proceedings to effectively remove the debt of their second mortgages. Bankruptcy courts can reclassify 2nd mortgages as unsecured if the appraised value of the home is less than the amount owed on the 1st mortgage—in essence, when there is no value securing the 2nd.

For example, a borrower has a $200K first mortgage and a $40K second mortgage; the borrower’s home only appraises for $180K. Thus, since there is no equity, or value, to secure the second mortgage—the borrower can file suit to have it removed.

With unprecedented decline in home values across the nation, one lawyer estimates at least 20% of his clients would qualify for a reclassification (Liening on banks: Second mortgages are next housing crisis, New York Post, 7/11/10).

If you have a significant portion of assets in second mortgages, we recommend stress testing what could happen to your risk profile should a significant amount be charged off due to continued credit risk and bankruptcy proceedings.

Furthermore, everyone should consider what could happen to the broader economic landscape should 20% of the nation’s $1 trillion second mortgage market be put at risk of reclassification.